Alexander Gaponenko: The referendum as a tool for building a “Latvia for Latvians”

On February 18, 2012, in Latvia, there plans for a national referendum, where a question will be raised about elevating the status of the Russian language to the level of government.
To understand the deep meaning of the forthcoming referendum, it is necessary to address the country’s history and understand the essence of the “Russian question” as it emerged twenty years ago.

The History of the “Russian question”

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the Second Republic of Latvia, the power had been captured the Latvian National Communist nomenclature. The legitimacy of its rule is substantiated by the concept of building “Latvia for ethnic Latvians”. The ideology of creating an ethnically (racially) pure society, nomenclature elite had taken from post-war Latvian intelligentsia that had returned from the West. These émigré intellectuals actively cooperated in the WW II on the side of the Nazis, and therefore carefully preserved, and brought with him to the home of National Socialist ideals as well as Russophobe and anti-Russian positions associated with them.

New ruling class had originally intended to build  “Latvia for ethnic Latvians” on two main courses. First, he wanted to forcibly oust from the country a significant part of the Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Poles, Lithuanians, Jews, which, for simplicity, were all dubbed Russian. Second, they intended to assimilate the rest of the foreigners through the imposition of compulsory Latvian language and depriving the minorities of their own social institutions that preserved ethnic identity.

The start of the policy of building “Latvia for ethnic Latvians” originated the “Russian question”, that is the question of what the ruling elite must do with Russian population that had suddenly become “alien”.

Among the Latvian ruling elite immediately formed two groups that took different approaches to the “Russian question”: radical nationalist and national-liberal. First advocated a quick military solution to the problem – the deportation of a considerable part of Russians, the immediate liquidation of their social institutions, the use of repression against the disgruntled Russian activists. Their ideal was Latvian nationalists of Ulmanis times of dictatorship and Nazi collaborators during World War II. National-Liberals proposed a gradual and smooth assimilation of aliens – prohibition of higher education in Russian, the gradual introduction of teaching only in Latvian in Russian schools, cutting funding for organizations popularizing the Russian culture, restrictions on the activities of Russian-language media. The liberals did not have their own ideology or heroes from and they willingly used ideologemes created by radicals, however, trying to infuse them with some fine liberal elements.

“Migration and demographic” policy of the Latvian ruling elite

The Latvian national radicals and National-Liberals acted in close alliance and were continuously in power in Latvia for the last 20 years. During this time they have achieved some success in building an ethnically pure society. Thus, if the official census in 1989 in the Latvian SSR, lived 48.0% aliens, by the end of 2010, the Second Republic of Latvia, their share fell by 7.5 percentage points – to 40.5%.

Such a sharp decline in the share of minorities in the country’s population was due to their forced extrusion abroad, as well as through the creation of such socio-economic conditions where mortality was higher among aliens, and the birth rate – lower than that of the Latvian population.

True, the result of a “migration-demographic” policy of the ruling elite was also the rapid reduction of the Latvian community. The last census data did not record it correctly, but the census in 2011 revealed this fact. According  to the preliminary Census report published in May of last year, total population of the republic has decreased 29% over the past decades, and  had reached a level of 1935. Because emigration of Latvians has higher rates than emigration  of Russians, the Latvian proportion in population is rapidly approaching the proportion of the Russian population . This is the first cause of hysteria, of the ruling elite – the referendum votes cast for and against the Russian language could be equal. The authorities had to spend a year to “correct” population census so that it would not show such a tragic outcome “of migration and demographic” policy of the government.
Initially, government had encountered a challenge during the implementation of a program of assimilation of foreigners. Aliens refused to become Latvians. Therefore, the ruling elite began to pursue a policy of ethnic discrimination and relegate their Russian population to the lowest step of the social ladder.

Ethnocratic power system

The elite that seized the power in Latvia in 1991, were bureaucracy by their social position, that is a class that serves state and receives from him it’s allowance. From the start, this group had used its power to obtain control of state property, and also to use it for personal income.

Some officials after the misappropriation of state-owned enterprises engaged in the private business. Their political connections are used to obtain government contracts and subsidies from the budget. Earned money they invested in the maintenance of “pocket” parties. Thus was born a small but a very influential group of Latvian oligarchs.

The bureaucracy and the oligarchs ruthlessly fleeced independent small businesses. For this reason, the latter failed to develop into a separate class of the national bourgeoisie, which would have political means to defend their interests.

Salaried workers also failed to restore their trade unions and the party after the defeat of the organized labor movement in the early 90s. They were scattered and did not constitute a real class.

But the bureaucracy has become a major and well-organized class. It created parties that protected its interests, dominated the media, hired  ideologues. Officials had completely subjugated as the legislative and judicial authority in the country.

To protect their power bureaucracy used the old but very effective tool for separating and pushing different ethnic group’s one against the other  Latvians bureaucrats proclaimed that Latvians have natural advantages over all aliens, that they are destined from birth to the execution of powers, to engage only in highly skilled and paid jobs. Aliens were announced to be second-class citizens, “invaders” who illegally settled in Latvia after the war, ethnic group guilty of repression against the Latvians. This simple method gave the appearance of ideological justice to the activities of Latvian bureaucracy for “punishment” of the Russians and gave it a mandate to pursue a policy of ethnic discrimination.
The majority of Latvians did not gain any real social and material benefits from government bureaucracy, but obediently participated in the electoral mobilizations led  by that took place under the banner of the fight against a mythical “Russian threat.” Major role in the formation of this kind of behavior by Latvian voters played ruling elite controlled media, schools, universities, theaters and museums.

The main legal instrument for ensuring the inviolability of the power of the bureaucracy was a denial of the rights of citizenship almost three quarters of the Russian republic’s population, turning them into so-called “Non-citizens.” In addition to being deprived of fundamental political rights, non-citizens were denied the opportunity to buy land, to lead banks and joint stock companies, to serve as officials, to be self-employed. Non-citizens have also been infringed upon in the issuance of privatization certificates, appointment of pension benefits… However, they were forced to pay full taxes and perform other public duties.

Officials used Latvian language as a second tool to ensure their power. Using a natural advantage in the possession of the language, they had pushed non-Latvians, who, of course, knew it worse out of all public institutions and enterprises. To exert pressure on non-Latvians in the private sector, there have been set very high standards of requirements for language skills, a specially created committee checked the knowledge of the employees of private enterprises, fined them, and demanded their dismissal.

As a result of bureaucracy using two of these instruments of ethnic discrimination in Latvia, there was a pyramid of ethno-social structure. On top of this pyramid were exclusively Latvian officials and oligarchs, next step – those close to the powers that be and dependent on them, Latvian entrepreneurs, and under them,  the middle class, mostly Latvian in its composition and lower classes were filled with social Russian small entrepreneurs and employees.

This, the structure of the division of society into closed ethno-social class semi-feudal in nature had remained stable, though not quite capable of development. This is especially revealed in the 2009 outbreak of the global economic crisis. The fall of the GDP, the size of unemployment, reduced income in Latvia were the most tragic in Europe. Bureaucracy escaped from the riots of discontented population only due to the fact that they’ve requested and received huge international loans.

Under conditions of acute economic crisis, the bureaucracy had been unable to restructure the existing system of management, since it is largely based on the exploitation of “natives.” Bureaucracy is also completely controlled the Latvian community and stopped any of its attempts to reform society. The only community that demanded changes demanded from the authorities was Russian community that had been oppressed in all spheres

Russian Community of Latvia: from fragmentation to consolidation

After coming to power in 1991, Latvian bureaucracy launched its main attack on its competitor – Russian elite. Russian politicians and business executives were subjected to unlawful restrictions of rights (lustration), which are not repealed to this day. Russian intellectuals lost their jobs due to mass purges in state institutions and the closing of large state enterprises. The majority of Russians were unable to work as self-employed workers due to lack of citizenship or lack of language skills. The most active part of the Russians rushed into a private business and turned into businessman. Then, newly emerging Russian political figures largely imitated activity to defend their interests thereby supporting the legal members of the Russian community.

Given the weakness of the Russian elite, radical nationalists regularly campaigned with an aim of further restricting the rights of members of the Russian community. In response to this pressure Russian community had self-organized and had given quite an adequate response. So it was, for example, in 2003-2004. When the government attempted to transform  the high сlass of Russian schools to training in Latvian language, this attempt had failed because of the network organization of the Russian Schools Defenses Headquarters, which had been organized by the parents and led to tens of thousands of street protest by students. However, Russian activists that emerged after this incident were partly repressed by the Latvian security services, partly dissolved because they were not able to set long-term goals and lead the masses of the population.

A new attempt by Latvian Russian radical nationalists by outright Russian assimilation was made in the summer of 2011 when they initiated a referendum to ban the teaching in public Russian schools in the children’s native language. The attempt failed, but the Russian activists began in response to petition for a referendum on giving the Russian language in Latvia a status of a second state language.  They were able to gather signatures of 187 thousand voters and to bring an action before the appointment date of the referendum. A transformation of the Russian community into an independent factor in the political life of the Latvia was something that ruling bureaucracy was not expecting and it was the second cause of hysteria in their ranks.

“Latgale question”

Mainstreaming in the preparation of the language referendum on Russian question” has revealed the existence of a more complex “Latgale issue.”Latvian bureaucracy averted Latgalians even lower position in the social hierarchy than the Russian. Latgalians knew the Latvian language and almost all were citizens. However, they could achieve any position in the government, only if completely renounced their ethnic identity and take latvian identity. Latgale language was declared a dialect of Latvian and Latgalians were denied the right to be called independent people. If the Russian had their own schools, private schools, theaters, newspapers, magazines, radio and television broadcasts, the Latgalian population did not have any of this. Latgale, as the territory of the indigenous population of Latgale has been permanently deprived in the allocation of public funds, international grants, and investments. In the region, unemployment was twice higher than in the whole country. The region’s population declined because of the migration rate that in less than half a century it is threatened with extinction.

Latgales raised the issue of granting them the status of regional language, but so far failed to get proper public response. That’s why they actively supported the campaign to collect signatures for a referendum over granting Russian a status of a state language. It was particularly evident during the collection of signatures for a referendum in Latgale. Latgalians reasonably expected that the change in status of the Russian language will automatically increase the status of Latgale. And this is the third cause of hysteria Latvian bureaucracy.

Life after the referendum, or how to build a “Latvia for  Latvians”?

The Russian community in the upcoming referendum does not intend d to make Russian the official language. It seeks to achieve through referendum equality to the Latvian political and socio-economic rights, as well as help other ethnic group, Latgalians, to achieve equal rights. This is done to ensure that all together they could build a modern political Latvian nation that will make Latviaa democratic and prosperous country. In its most general form of the proposed concept of the Russian community could be called a program for building of “Latvia for  Latvians”.

The appeals of the Russian community leaders together to build a modern political nation was heard not only Latgalians, but by part of the Latvians, whom ethnocracy could not make into a zombie by lamentations about the “Russian threat”. There is a new, democratic in nature Latvian elite, which can realize the difference between common ethnic interests and the community-specific social interests of Latvian bureaucracy. This new elite began to formulate a new ideological positions and make them available to the masses of the Latvian population. Among these ideas is a desire to establish a dialogue with the Russian community, to address together outstanding social and economic problems.

In view of these circumstances, on the one hand it became possible to overcome the bi-communal and build one of the Latvian nation in which, on an equal footing, coexisted Latvians, Latgales and Russians. On the other hand, the ruling bureaucratic class felt the approach of the end of its monopoly on power and was faced with a difficult choice: to lead long-overdue transformation of semi-feudal social structure and preserve at least part of their power and property, or forcibly break them and preserve the situation for some time with a major opportunity to get the situation completely out of its control.

These two directions of developments in the Latvian society have equal probability, and their implementation depends on the influence of many internal and external factors.

Let’s consider first the scenario based on the autonomous actions of the Latvian actors of the political process.

The pessimistic scenario

The Latvian national radicals, right now it’s the party of “All Latvia” and group “Civil Union” as part of the Party “Unity” will prevail ideologically in the public space and lead national-liberals, who are represented by “The Reform Party Zatlers,” “Union of Greens and Farmers’ Party and part of the “Unity” (group “New Time”). Together, they will prevent the Referendum on the Russian language status, or falsify its results, by starting the usual campaign to mobilize Latvian voters by the “Russian threat”. This will lead to movement of Russian protest out of the legal field, to the street. Latvian radicals will use any of the street protests by Russian organization for provocations, to organize a collision, which will lead to inevitable casualties. Russian community will also radicalize. Latent ethnic conflict will enter into an open phase, which will last for decades and will require international intervention to stop.

The optimistic scenario

The new democratic elite will be supported by the Latvian part of the liberal-minded officials. Radical Party “All Latvia” and the deputies of the “Civil Union” will be removed from the ruling coalition. The new ruling coalition will include the party “Harmony Centre”, which to some extent, reflects the interests of the Russian population.

A referendum on the status of Russian language will run without the ruling elite pedaling anti-Russian slogans. Ethnic conflict will not spill over into the street and an out-of-control situation can be avoided. Following that, there will be needed serious improvement in the existing system of ethnic discrimination.

In case of failure of the ruling elite to dismantle the system of  ethnocratic government crisis is inevitable that can be overcome only through the dissolution of the Seim. Whether the president or the people themselves initiate this step, will not be significant. During the early elections a democratically-minded Latvian elite will still come to power and will be forced to carry out long-overdue transformation in conjunction with the party of “Harmony Centre”.

As an alternative, “Latvia for ethnic Latvians” new ruling elite will implement the concept of construction of the “Latvian Latvia”. As a result, over time, it will be possible to establish from the two ethnic communities a unified Latvian political nation. It is still too early to talk about the ways and mechanisms of building this nation, because the question of its creation Latvian elite have not even discussed yet.

External Factors of the political situation

After the collapse of the Soviet Union Republic of Latvia had only gained visible sovereignty. Politically, it was in the exclusive zone of influence of the United States, and in economic terms, the European Union (EU). These two leading geopolitical players supported Latvian bureaucracy in the early 90s of the twentieth century and allowed her to build a system of ethnic discrimination in Latvia. This was done to prevent the revival of Russian influence through numerous Russian Diasporas in this strategically important territory.

Subsequently, two of the leading geopolitical patron consistently provided Latvian ethnocracy with political and economic support, creating a system that was not capable of independent existence and development. The global economic crisis has weakened the U.S .and the EU. They could no longer provide grant assistance to Latvia, and decided to change to a new ruling elite, as it is just done in all the countries of North Africa.

The intention of the ruling elite of Latvian to unleash an ethnic conflict right under Russian nose does not suit either the United States, who may lose important geopolitical area or the EU, who may lose their loans, markets, sources of raw materials and cheap labor force. Therefore, both international patrons will have a chilling effect on the Latvian National Liberals push national radicals from the ruling coalition of and give strength to control the Russian segment of the population.

Russia under the circumstances, behaves very passively, as it has yet another change of government and hands of those in power simply do not reach to the petty fuss Latvian elite. The only thing that must be noted is that Moscow is not interested in starting at a nearby ethnic conflict, especially as she never bothered to get experience in managing such conflicts even within herself.

All together, this suggests that the events in Latvia will not develop according to the pessimistic but to the optimistic scenario.

Professor of Economic Science, PHD Alexander Gaponenko